The
food bubble is about to
burst
The New
Scientist February 10,
2011
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20927986.400-
earth-economist-the-food-bubble-is-about-to-burst.html
The
food bubble is about to
burst
We're fast
draining the fresh water
resources our farms rely
on,
warns
Lester Brown, president of the
Earth Policy Institute
by Alison
George
What is a
food bubble?
That's when
food production is inflated
through the unsustainable
use
of water
and land. It's the water bubble
we need to worry about
now.
The World
Bank says that 15 per cent of
Indians (175 million
people)
are fed by
grain produced through
overpumping - when water is
pumped
out of
aquifers faster than they can be
replenished. In China,
the
figure
could be 130 million.
Has this
bubble already burst
anywhere?
Saudi
Arabia made itself
self-sufficient in wheat by using
water from
a fossil
aquifer, which doesn't refill. It
has harvested close to
3
million
tonnes a year, but in 2008 the
Saudi authorities said
the
aquifer was
largely depleted. Next year could
be the last harvest.
This is
extreme, but about half the
world's people live in
countries
with
falling water tables. India and
China will lose grain
production
capacity
through aquifer depletion. We
don't know when or how
abruptly
the bubble will burst.
With
population rising, a fall in
grain production would spell big
trouble.
Yes.
Tonight at the dinner table there
will be 219,000 people
who
weren't
there last night. But that's not
all: we also have maybe
3
billion
people moving up the food chain,
consuming more
grain-intensive
livestock products. Then there is
the conversion of
grain into
ethanol for cars, mainly in the
US, where last year
119
million
tonnes went to distilleries out
of a harvest of just over
400
million
tonnes.
What will
happen if we carry on as we are
now?
Civilisation
as we know it can't withstand the
stresses of continuing
with
business as usual. We've got to
move, almost on a war
footing,
to cut
carbon emissions, eradicate
poverty, stabilise population.
We
must also
restore the economy's natural
support systems: forests
and
aquifers
and soils. No civilisation ever
survived that kind of
destruction;
nor will ours. We haven't gone
over the edge, but
we're
much closer
than most people think. If the
heatwave that hit
Moscow
in 2010 had
been centred on Chicago instead,
we would be in deep
trouble.
The Russians lost 40 per cent of
their
100-million-tonne
grain crop,
but we would have lost 40 per
cent of our
400-million-tonne
crop - a massive global
setback.
How can we
avert a disaster like
this?
In many
countries, irrigation water is
free or comes at a low
price,
so it's
treated as an abundant resource.
In fact it's scarce
and
should be
priced accordingly. We must also
redefine what we mean
by
"security".
The real threats are not some
armed superpower but
water
or food
shortages, climate change and the
rising number of
failed
states.
Can
individuals make a
difference?
The
question I get asked most is
"What can I do?" People expect me
to
say change
your light bulbs, recycle
newspaper, but I say we
must
restructure
the world economy, especially in
energy. It's about
becoming
politically active. If there's a
coal-fired power
station
near you,
organise to close it
down.
Profile
Lester
Brown has a background in
agricultural science and
economics.
In the
1970s he founded the Worldwatch
Institute. The Earth
Policy
Institute,
which he founded in 2001, is
dedicated to "planning
a
sustainable
future". His latest book is World
on the Edge
(Earthscan)
